Where we live in the Rocky Mountains of Montana, more days than not, reading the day's weather forecast and experiencing the reality of that weather, makes me question how the prediction came to be. Today, for example, we're supposed to be "sunny with a few clouds and 68." Out my office window as I write this, rain has filled the day with a persistence and is not leaving anytime soon. Low hanging clouds have eliminated my view of a near-by lake, and the weather-bug gadget on my computer reads 49 degrees.

I accept that I don't live in a region of predicable weather patterns. Sudden arctic winds and moisture from the Pacific coast can hit with unusual vigor, even closing a mountain pass unexpectently early for the season. Still, more days than not, our weather forecast seems derived from slips of paper randomly pulled from the grab-bag of weather options.

I find it unsettling not to know what to wear on any given day, or how to plan my indoor-outdoor activities for the week. It's curious to me that sophisticated computer tracking models, television channels dedicated to the topic, and countless experts get it wrong more days than not.

But this rambling isn't about the weather. We get predictions wrong on lots of fronts. Like the forecast at the end of 1929 by the U.S. Department of Labor predicting 1930 would be "a splendid employment year." We know from the Great Depression that didn't happen. Or IBM chairman, John Watson, who said in 1943, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Or twenty-five years later Business Week claiming, "The Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market."

Here's my question: if meteorologists who know best about the weather, economists who understand complex trends, and statisticians, scientists and other experts get the near future predictions wrong, what does that say about the crystal ball pundits we listen to on the news or read online. Do they really know what's ahead or how it will affect your life?

I can't even predict my own life. Who would have forecasted that the healthiest family member (my father) would contract early Alzheimer's and my parents' retirement plans would evaporate; how could we have known the hit our own personal and financial well-being would take in this recession; or that there would finally be no option but a broken promise to my mother when her unforeseen strokes necessitated a nursing facility?

How do any of us, as the expert on our own life, ever know what's around our corner? I read a tweet recently that made me smile and gave me pause: "Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit; wisdom is not putting it in a fruit salad." So, in the scheme of things, here's my version of that tweet related to forecasts about our own life's weather patterns - I would contend: knowledge is knowing that the predictability of life is its unpredictability; wisdom is not letting that stop you.

(c) 2010 Nan S. Russell.  All Rights Reserved.

Nan S. Russell is the award-winning author of "Hitting Your Stride: Your Work, Your Way." More about Nan and her work can be found at www.nanrussell.com. Author of "Hitting Your Stride: Your Work, Your Way" (Capital Books; January 2008) Sign up to receive Nan's free monthly eColumn at: www.intheschemeofthings.com.