President Obama assumes that the Palestinian issue is a root
cause of Mid-East turbulence, the crown jewel of Arab policy-making and
the crux of the Arab-Israeli conflict. He maintains that the resolution
of the Palestinian issue would moderate the Mid-East, facilitating the
formation of a US-Arab coalition against Iran. On September 21, 2011, he
proclaimed at the UN General Assembly: "There is one issue that stands
as... a test for American foreign policy and that is the conflict
between the Israelis and the Palestinians." Is it?
Irrespective of the Palestinian issue, 2011 has catapulted the
anti-Western trans-national Muslim Brotherhood - the Big Brother of
Hamas terrorists - to political prominence in Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco
and soon in Syria, Jordan and other Arab countries. The rise of the
Muslim Brotherhood, and other Islamic parties, is a derivative of the
1,400 year old supremacy of Islam in the educational, social and
political sectors in every Arab country.
Regardless of Israel's policies and existence, Iran is pursuing
nuclear capabilities and confronting the US, NATO and Saudi Arabia, in
order to advance its megalomaniac aspirations in the Persian Gulf, the
Mideast, the Muslim world, Latin America and the world at-large.
Independent of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, 2011 has exposed the
Mid-East as the role model of intra-Arab/Muslim violence, volatility,
shifty regimes, policies and alliances, instability, uncertainty,
unpredictability, corruption, hate education, treachery, non-compliance,
and intra-Muslim/Arab fragmentation along tribal, ethnic, religious,
ideological and geographic lines.
Notwithstanding the Palestinian issue, the Saudi-Yemen border region,
Bahrain and the Persian Gulf are boiling; intra-Muslim terrorism
proliferates; post-Mubarak Egypt trends towards Turkey's or Iran's
anti-US path; Syria and Lebanon constitute domestic, intra-Muslim and
intra-Arab battlegrounds; Turkey switched from NATO-oriented to
Islam-oriented policies, aspiring to reclaim Islamic hegemony, courting
Russia and Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas; Russia and China penetrate deeper
into the Mid-East; US-evacuated Iraq could become an active volcano,
whose lava could consume Jordan, Kuwait and the Gulf region.
Contrary to conventional Western wisdom, the Palestinian issue has
not preoccupied Arab policy-making. Persian Gulf regimes are traumatized
by Iran's nuclear threat, the raging Arab Street, and by the seismic
potential of the turmoil in Iraq. Egypt is absorbed with tectonic
domestic developments, causing a 10-20 year economic and social setback.
Jordan is alarmed by the Muslim Brotherhood's surge and by the growing
discontent among its Bedouin power base in Southern Jordan. Turkey is
consumed with its drive for intra-Muslim hegemony. Morocco is imperiled
by the ripple effects of the Tunisian, Libyan and Egyptian turmoil. And,
the 1,400 years of Islamic terrorism is surging. Could the less than
100 year old Palestinian issue be the core cause of the 1,400 year old
Mid-East reality?!
Arab leaders are concerned about potential Palestinian-driven
subversion, which caused the expulsion of Arafat, Mahmoud Abbas and
their PLO associates from Egypt in the late 1950s, from Syria in 1966,
from Jordan in 1970, from Lebanon in 1982/3 and from Kuwait in 1991.
Therefore, Arab leaders marshal their rhetoric, but not their resources,
on behalf of Palestinians. For example, during the October 2010 Arab
Summit, Arab leaders pledged $500MN to the Palestinian, but only seven
percent was delivered. More than $2 billion were pledged by the Arabs in
support of the first and second Palestinian Intifada against Israel,
but less than $500 million reached the Palestinians. Western financial
aid to the Palestinian Authority dramatically exceeds aid from Arab
oil-producing countries.
Contrary to Western political correctness, the Palestinian issue is
not the crux of the Arab-Israeli conflict. The 1948/9 War was not fought
by the Arabs because, or for, the Palestinians. Therefore, Egypt, Iraq,
Jordan and Syria, which occupied Gaza, Samaria, Judea, eastern
Jerusalem and Hama respectively, did not transfer the area to the
Palestinians. The 1967 Six Day War preempted an Egyptian-orchestrated
Arab offensive to destroy Israel, aiming to facilitate Egypt's
subordination of Jordan and Saudi Arabia and domination of the Mid-East.
The 1982 PLO-Israel War in Lebanon was Israel's first non-Arab
country-Israeli war. Arabs are willing to sacrifice rhetoric, but not
lives or money, on the altar of the Palestinian issue. Likewise, the
1987-1992 and the 2000-2002, first and second Palestinian Intifada, as
well as the 2009 Hamas-Israel war in Gaza, were never transformed into
Arab-Israeli wars.
Thus, the Red Carpet, which welcomes Palestinian leaders in the West,
is transformed into a shabby rug when they land in Arab capitals. What
do Arabs know about the Palestinians, that the West has yet to learn?!
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger
The Ettinger Report
"Second Thought: A US-Israel Initiative"
First published in "Israel Hayom" newsletter, January 24, 2012
