The prophets of demographic doom have contended, since the
establishment of modern day Zionism in 1897 and the Jewish State in
1948, that Jews are doomed to become a minority west of the Jordan
River. The facts prove them wrong!
In 2011, in defiance of demographic fatalism, Israel's Jewish
demography benefits from a tailwind while Arabs, throughout the
Mid-East, experience a demographic headwind.
For instance, the annual number of Jewish births has surged by 56%
since 1995 - reflecting a rising fertility rate (number of births per
woman) - while the annual number of Israeli Arab births has grown by 10%
- reflecting a sharp decline in fertility rate.
The annual number of Israel's Jewish births has expanded from 69% of
total births, in 1995, to 76% of total births in 2011. In 1995, there
were 2.3 Jewish births per each Arab birth, compared with 3.1 Jewish
births per each Arab birth in 2011.
The secular Jewish sector - especially the Olim (immigrants) from the
former USSR and the Tel Aviv area yuppies - is mostly responsible for
the demographic surge. At the same time, the ultra-orthodox sector is
experiencing a drop in fertility, resulting from its gradual integration
into the employment market and expanded service in the Israel Defense
Forces.
The Jewish-Arab gap of fertility has been reduced from 6 births in
1969 to 0.5 births in 2011, trending toward a convergence at 3 births
per woman. In fact, Jewish-Arab fertility convergence is already in
place among younger women and in northern Israel (the largest Arab
community), while the fertility rate among Israeli-born Jewish women
exceeds 3 births per woman. In Jerusalem, the Jewish fertility rate (4.3
births) is higher than the Arab rate (3.9).
In fact, Israel's Jewish fertility rate is higher than most Arab
countries, other than Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria. For example,
Jordan, a twin sister of Judea and Samaria in many respects, features
2.8 births per woman, Egypt has declined to 2.5 births and even non-Arab
radical Islamic Iran has taken a dip to 1.7 births per woman (a 2.1
rate is required to sustain the current numbers).
The sharp decline in the Arab fertility rate, west of the Jordan
River, is a derivative of the successful integration of Arabs into the
infrastructure of modernity. Israeli Arabs have blended into the
infrastructure of education, medical, employment, leisure, banking,
agriculture, sports, politics, academia, media and the arts. Most Arab
women marry at the age of 20+, instead of 15-18, and stop the
reproductive process at the age of 40+, instead of 50+. The phenomenon
of Arab teen pregnancy is vanishing. Family planning and the use of
contraceptives has become an acceptable norm among Arabs. This process
has been faster among Judea and Samaria Arabs due to dramatic
urbanization: 70% rural population in 1967 and 75% urban population in
2011, burdened by 30% unemployment, a PLO-Hamas civil war and a rising
divorce rate.
Modernity has also reduced the Arab natural increase - birth minus
death - due to the diminishing number of births on the one hand, and the
increase in the number of the elderly - as a proportion of the Arab
population - on the other hand. The latter is the result of the rapid
rise of Arab life expectancy, causing a rapid shrinking of natural
increase.
Net-Arab-emigration, from Judea and Samaria, has been an annual
phenomenon since 1950 (with the exception of six years). Most emigrants
are in the reproductive age. In contrast, net-Jewish immigration has
benefitted Israel, with most Olim in the reproductive age. Waves of
Jewish immigration (Aliya) have occurred every 20 years: 1950s, 1970s
and 1990s. Another wave is possible, should Israel and the Jewish people
rise to the occasion, leveraging economic, social and (Jewish)
educational realities in Russia, Ukraine, other former USSR Republics,
France, England, Argentina and the USA.
In 1898, the leading Jewish demographer/historian, Shimon Dubnov,
referred to Theodore Herzl, the father of modern day Zionism, as "a
messianic wishful-thinker." Dubnov projected a 500,000 Jewish population
in the land of Israel by the year 2000 - an insignificant minority. He
was off by more than 5 million Jews. In 1948, the founder of Israel's
Central Bureau of Statistics, and the mentor of today's prophets of
demographic doom, Prof. Roberto Bacchi, projected a 2.3 million Jewish
minority of 33% in 2001. He was off by 3.5 million Jews.
Since 1967, Israel's demographers of doom have contended that Jews
are doomed to become a minority west of the Jordan River. They prescribe
the panacea to the demographic threat: conceding geography (Judea and
Samaria) in order to secure demography. In defiance of these demographic
projections, over six million Jews constitute a 66% majority in the
combined area of pre-1967 Israel, Judea and Samaria. The number of Judea
& Samaria Arabs has been inflated by one million (including
overseas residents, double-counting Jerusalem Arabs, inflating birth
numbers, etc.) since the arrival of one million Olim from the USSR.
Demographic facts conclude that anyone suggesting that Jews are
doomed to become a minority west of the Jordan River is either
dramatically mistaken or outrageously misleading.
Policy-makers should base policy upon facts and not upon refuted numbers!
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger
The Ettinger Report
"Second Thought: A US-Israel Initiative"
First published in "Israel Hayom" Newsletter, December 8, 2011
