Grasping the American state of mind constitutes a prerequisite for a
proper assessment of US domestic politics in general and the November
2012 presidential and congressional races in particular.
Recent public opinion polls reaffirm that the US is a center-right
nation, and that "Micropolitan America," Main Street, K-Mart, Fox News,
radio talk show hosts, the Wall Street Journal and the local "Gazettes"
are as important - in shaping the US political scene - as are
"Metropolitan America," Wall Street, K Street, CNN and the three major
networks, NPR radio and the New York Times.
Notwithstanding the uninspiring slate of Republican candidates, and
the self-destruct Republican presidential primaries, recent public
opinion polls highlight the uphill challenge facing President Obama's
reelection campaign and the Democratic Party's attempt to sustain its
Senate majority and regain the House majority.
According to a January 12, 2012 Gallup poll, conservatives have
become the single largest group (40%) in the US, consistently
outnumbering moderates (35%) since 2009 and outnumbering liberals (21%)
by 2-to-1. "This marks the third straight year that conservatives have
outnumbered moderates, after more than a decade in which moderates
mainly tied or outnumbered conservatives."
Gallup determined that Independents -- who make up the largest
political group in the US - increasingly identify themselves as
conservative (35%), less as liberal (20%), while the percentage of
moderate independents is trending downward (41%).
There are, possibly, more "Blue Dog Democrats" (which are targeted
by Republicans for a switchover) than liberal Democrats, since Democrats
consist of 40% liberals, 38% moderates and 20% conservatives.
At the same time, the percentage of moderate Republicans fell from
31% to 23%, while conservative Republicans have grown 10% since 2002,
from 62% to 72%.
While a plurality (40%) of young adults are moderate, conservative
and liberal young adults are 28% each. By contrast, a plurality of all
older age groups (40% or more) is conservative, about a third is
moderate and no more than 21% is liberal. In other words, the upward
conservative trend since 2002 has occurred primarily among adults 30 and
older.
The aforementioned Gallup findings provide the background to - and
are consistent with - a series of data published by the January 14, 2012
Rasmussen Report. For example, 55% of likely voters consider the
President more liberal than they are, and just 27% feel that the
president has about the same ideological views as they do. Moreover, 41%
of the likely voters strongly disapprove - and 22% strongly approve -
of President Obama's performance. Overall, 46% somewhat approve of the
President's performance, while 53% at least somewhat disapprove. 47% of
likely U.S. voters think that the Republican candidate is most likely to
beat President Obama, while 39% expect the incumbent to win reelection.
A January 9, 2012 Rasmussen Report indicates that 54% of likely
voters favor a repeal of ObamaCare, while 39% at least somewhat support
the health reform. Furthermore, an October, 2011 Rasmussen Report found
that 70% favor individual choice over government standards for health
insurance.
Congressionally, 44% of likely U.S. voters would vote for the
Republican candidate in their district if the election were held today,
while 38% would choose the Democrat instead. A January 2, 2012 Rasmussen
Report contends that the number of Republicans increased by a
percentage point in December (35.4%), while the number of Democrats fell
back two points (32.7%) to the lowest level ever recorded by the
Rasmussen Report.
The American state of mind constitutes the foundation of US domestic
politics, as well as US foreign policy in general, and the unique
US-Israel bond in particular. Israeli leaders would benefit,
substantially, from studying the significance of the aforementioned
Gallup and Rasmussen public opinion polls.
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger
The Ettinger Report
"Second Thought: A US-Israel Initiative"
First published in "Israel Hayom" newsletter, January 17, 2011
