The 2012 stormy Arab Street is not heading towards a solution; it is
heading towards exacerbated problems of state-sponsored terrorism,
uncertainty and shifty regimes, policies and alliances. The 2012 Arab
Street will not highlight the Arab Ghandis, Mandelas and MLKs; it will
be dominated by the trans-national Muslim Brotherhood, which embraces
Muhammad-style Islam as the sole-tolerated religious, political, social,
military and moral compass. The Muslim Brotherhood aims to dominate the
Abode of Islam, as a prelude to the physical subjugation of the
morally-inferior Abode of the Infidel.
On December 29, 2011,
Adel Al Toraifi, the Editor-in-Chief of the London-based Arab affairs
magazine, Al Majalla accurately analyzed the Muslim Brotherhood's
political sophistication. He quoted the former Muslim Brotherhood's
Supreme Guide, Mahda Akef: "for us, democracy is like a pair of slippers
that we wear until we reach the bathroom, and then we take them off."
Al Toraifi maintains that "The Muslim Brotherhood is skilled at
political planning and tactics.... Those who expect - or hope - that the
Muslim Brotherhood will...resemble the Islamist experience in Turkey,
have no concrete evidence for this whatsoever, rather this is merely
wishful thinking."
The deterioration of the Arab Street is, primarily, a derivative of
the 1,400 year suppressive, intolerant monopoly of Islam over the
religious, educational, cultural and, sometimes, the political and
military sectors of Arab societies. Egypt was considered a relatively
moderate Muslim country, but 2011 ushered in the Muslim Brotherhood in
full force, awaiting the opportunity to assert itself, politically,
between the Persian Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean.
The 2012 Arab Street will be further fueled by the American
evacuation of Iraq. The evacuation could produce a volcanic eruption, in
Iraq, consuming the pro-US regime in Baghdad, playing into the hands of
Iran, which aspires to dominate the Persian Gulf and promotes anti-US
regimes in the Mid-East and beyond (e.g. Venezuela, Bolivia and
Ecuador). The US departure from Iraq could, also, wreak havoc in Jordan,
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States.
While the US' strategic arm in the Mid-East is getting shorter, the
Russian and Chinese Mid-East profile is growing stronger, providing a
tailwind to anti-US regimes.
The 2012 Arab Street could dwarf the seismic events of 2011,
impacting national and regional security and the resulting security
requirements. The lower the stability and life-expectancy of Mid-East
regimes, the shiftier are their ideology, policies and commitments
(e.g., Egypt's and Jordan's peace accords with Israel). The higher the
volatility of the Arab Street, the higher is the security threshold and
requirements in the face of that volatility. Moreover, the shorter the
US' strategic arm, the less effective is its posture of deterrence, the
more adrenalized are rogue regimes, the more acute is the threat of war
and the higher are the security requirements in the face of the stormy
Arab Street.
The threshold of Israel's security requirements is rising as the threats are mounting.
According to Lt. General (ret.) Tom Kelly, Chief of Operations in the
1991 Gulf War, "I cannot defend this land (Israel) without that terrain
(West Bank)... Without the West Bank, Israel is only 8 miles wide at
its narrowest point. That makes it indefensible." General (ret.) Al
Gray, former Commandant, US Marine Corps stated that "missiles fly over
any terrain feature, but they don't negate the strategic significance of
territorial depth.... To defeat Israel would require the Arabs to
deploy armor, infantry and artillery into Israel.... It remains true in
the era of modern missiles."
The Judea and Samaria mountain ridges - the cradle of Jewish history -
constitute the most effective tank obstacle (a 2,000ft-3,000ft slope
over-towering the Jordan Valley, Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and 80% of Israel's
infrastructure). It is a dream platform of invasion to the 8-15 miles
wide pre-1967 Israel, in the most conflict-ridden, unpredictable and
treacherous neighborhood in the world, where there has never been an
intra-Arab comprehensive peace, or intra-Arab compliance with most
intra-Arab agreements. The Judea and Samaria mountain ridges are
indispensable to Israel's survival in the raging Mid-East.
An insecure Israel would be a liability, rather than an asset, to the
US. An insecure Israel would not be able to deter an Arab invasion of
Jordan - which could have spilled over into Saudi Arabia - as Israel did
in September 1970, when the US was bogged down in Vietnam. An insecure
Israel would not be able to perform as "the largest US aircraft carrier
which does not require a single US soldier, saving the US $20 billion
annually (the late General Alexander Haig)."
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger
The Ettinger Report
"Second Thought: A US-Israel Initiative"
First published in "Israel Hayom" newsletter, December 30, 2011
